PDF forecasting at scale,facebook profit -SAS Visual Forecasting Fact Sheet - Forecasting
Wait Loading...

PDF :1 PDF :2 PDF :3 PDF :4 PDF :5 PDF :6 PDF :7

Like and share and download


SAS Visual Forecasting Fact Sheet

PDF Forecasting with confidence Global home kpmg content dam forecasting with confidence pdf PDF Forecasting at scale PeerJ peerj preprints 3190 pdf PDF Socially aware Large scale Crowd Forecasting Stanford

Related PDF

Forecasting at scale - PeerJ


Forecasting with confidence - Global

[PDF] Forecasting with confidence Global home kpmg content dam forecasting with confidence pdf

Forecasting at scale - PeerJ

[PDF] Forecasting at scale PeerJ peerj preprints 3190 pdf

Socially-aware Large-scale Crowd Forecasting - Stanford Vision Lab

[PDF] Socially aware Large scale Crowd Forecasting Stanford Vision Labvision stanford edu pdf alahi14 pdf

Forecasting Failure - Oil Change International

[PDF] Forecasting Failure Oil Change Internationalpriceofoil content uploads 2017 03 forecasting failure pdf

forecast - The R Project for Statistical Computing

[PDF] forecast The R Project for Statistical Computing cran r project web packages forecast forecast pdf

SAS Visual Forecasting Fact Sheet

Streamline your forecasting process The vast majority of time series can be forecast automatically SAS Visual Forecasting automatically produces large scale

FOREIGN 1967 Essential.english.for.Foreign.students Book.1 256p

Essential English For Foreign Students Book I 1a Ce Eckersley - SATI

PDF Essential English Book 1 Foreign Students Free Downloadrylsearchperce epizy essential english book 1 foreign students free download pdf PDF Essential English For Foreign Students Book Ii 2a Ce Eckersley publisher staging streamable essential english for foreign students book ii 2a

foreign aid and economic growth

The effect of foreign aid on economic growth in - Aabricom

PDF Foreign aid, economic growth and efficiency development OECD oecd derec sweden foreignaid pdf PDF Does foreign aid contribute to or impeded economic growth? jois eu files 2 493 Yiew Lau pdf

  1. definition of foreign aid pdf
  2. what is foreign aid
  3. role of foreign aid in economic development
  4. does foreign aid promote economic development
  5. importance of foreign aid to developing countries pdf
  6. positive effects of foreign aid
  7. foreign aid and economic development
  8. negative impact of foreign aid pdf

1) The functions of money are A) medium of exchange and the ability to buy goods and services B) medium of exchange, unit of account, and means of  Mar 25, 2011 (including on the World Wide Web) will destroy the integrity of the work and

  1. Testbank 1
  2. Testbank 3
  3. Foreign Currency Translation
  7. Test bank MULTIPLE CHOICE
  8. The Economics of Money
  9. Working with Foreign Currencies
  10. Nursery-Landscape CDE Test Bank B
  11. International Financial Management

Foreign Legions of the Third Reich Vol.1.pdf

Bobcat 175 Service Manual PDF Download

eflawards2017 co uk d610142 foreign legions of the third Foreign Legions Of The Third Reich Belgium Great Britain Holland Italy And Spain By Littlejohn D Ebook Foreign Legions Of The Third Reich Belgium Great Britain Holland Italy And Spain By Littlejohn D currently available at eflawards2017 co uk for review

Foreign Legions of the Third Reich Vol.3.pdf

Foreign Legions Of The Third Reich Vol 3 - Aemstie

PDF Foreign Legions Of The Third Reich Vol 3 Kronoscode chap kronoscode foreign legions of the third reich vol 3 pdf PDF Foreign Legions Of The Third Reich Vol 3 Home Bfxzgvn Ebook cascoon devlab fi foreign

Foreign Legions of the Third Reich Vol.4.pdf

Who's Who in Nazi Germany - CIA

Feb 6, 2008 It is one of the more bizarre footnotes in the story of the Third Reich that it was defended It was not the smallest of the Reich's foreign legions foreign ambassadors and the historical opinions of Russia's experts Latvian

  1. Franco's Request to the Third Reich for Military Assistance
  2. The Latvian Legion
  3. The debate on the Latvian SS Volunteer Legion
  4. The “Vietnam Legion”
  5. West German
  6. Who's Who in Nazi Germany
  7. Nazi Conspiracy and Aggression
  8. The Place of Turkestan in the Foreign Political Strategy of Germany
  9. Forced and Slave Labor in Nazi-Dominated Europe
  10. Cars & Nazis

Foreign military bases chair report

China Military Power - Defense Intelligence Agency

PDF Overseas Basing of US Military Forces An RAND Corporation rand content dam rand reports RAND RR201 sum pdf PDF Conference on US Foreign Military Bases Coalition Against US

  1. cost of us military bases overseas
  2. army bases overseas
  3. cost of us troops overseas
  4. benefits of overseas military operations
  5. benefits of foreign military bases
  6. us military bases around the world 2018
  7. how much does a military base cost to build
  8. us military bases around the world 2017

Foreign Money and Vancouver Real Estate

Real Estate eBook[1][1] - Keystone CPA, Inc

td document PDF economics qef Can CRE the spectrum of CRE types Foreign investment in Canadian real estate markets ramped up considerably in 2016 and is one source of capital that could flee quickly in the event of a further backup in bond yields 2016 ends on

Forense Movil

investigación forense, a incidentes en dispositivos móviles

PDF Análisis Forense de Dispositivos Móviles Android Vincenzo Mendillomendillo info Análisis 20forense 20de 20dispositivos 20móviles 20 20V 20Mendillo pdf PDF Análisis forense en dispositivos móviles iOS y Androidopenaccess uoc edu webapps o2 6 malvarezmuTFG0116memoria pdf PDF LA

Home back Next


Forecasting: Forecasting is the art and science of predicting future events

It may involve taking historical data and projecting them into the future with some sort of mathematical model

It may be subjective or intuitive prediction

Or it may involve a combination of these-that is a mathematical model adjusted by a manager’s good judgment

Types of Forecast: Economic Forecast: Planning indicators valuable in helping organization prepare medium-to-long range forecasts

Technological forecasts: Long term forecasts concerned with the rates of technological progress

Demand forecasts: Projections of a company’s sales for each time period in the planning horizon

Forecasting Time Horizons: 1

Short-range forecast: This forecast has a time span of up to 1 year but is generally less than 3 months

It is used for planning,

job assignments and production

Medium-range forecast: A medium-range forecast generally spans from 3 months to 3 years

It is useful in sales planning,

production planning and budgeting and analyzing various operating plans

Long- range forecast: Generally 3 years more in time spans,

long –range forecasts are used in planning for new products,

Examples: Forecast in Business Organization,

Accounting: New product/process cost estimates,

Finance: Timing and amount of finding/borrowing needs

Human resources: Hiring activities,

Marketing: Pricing and promotion,

MIS: New/revised information system,

Operation: Schedules,

work assignments and workload,

Product or service design: Revision if current features,

design of new products and services

Step in the forecasting process: 1

Determine the purpose of the forecast

How will it be used and when will it be needed

Select the items to be forecasted

Establish a time horizon

The forecast must indicate a time interval,

keeping in mind that accuracy decreases as the time horizons increases

Select the forecasting model

Gather and analyze relevant data

Make the forecast

Monitor the forecast

A forecast has to be monitored to determine whether it is performing in a satisfactory manner

If it is not,

and prepare a revised forecast

Forecasting Approach:  Qualitative or subjective forecasts incorporate such factors as the decision maker’s intuition,

and value system in reaching a forecast

 Quantitative forecasts that employ one or more mathematical models that rely on historical data and/or causal variables to forecast demand

Overview of Qualitative method: 1

Jury of executive opinion: A forecasting technique that takes the opinion of a small group of high-level managers and results in a group estimate of demand

Delphi method: A forecasting technique using a group process that allows experts to make forecasts

There are three different types of participants in the Delphi method: decision makers staff personnel,

Decision makers usually consist of a group of 5 to 10 experts who will be making the actual forecast

Staff personnel assist decision makers by preparing,

collecting and summarizing a series of questionnaires and survey results

The respondents are a group of people,

often located in the different places,

This group provides inputs to the decision makers before the forecast is made

Sales force opinions: The sales or the customer service staff is often a good source of information because of their direct contact with consumers

Sales force composite is a forecasting technique based on salespersons estimates of expected sales

Consumer market survey: A forecasting method that solicits input from customers or potential customers regarding future purchasing plans

Measuring Forecast Error: Forecast error is the difference between the actual value and value that was predicted for a given period

If Ft denotes the forecast in period t,

and At denotes the actual demand in period t,

the forecast error is defined asForecast error= Actual demand – Forecast demand = At

the mean squared error (MSE) and the mean absolute percent error

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD): MAD is the average absolute forecast error

Mean squared error: The average of the squared differences between the forecasted and observed values

Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE): The average of the absolute differences between the forecast and absolute values,

expressed as a percent of actual values

Overview of Quantitative Methods: Time series forecasts: A forecasting technique that uses a series of past data points to make a forecast

Moving averages Naïve approach Exponential smoothing Trend projection

Associative Model: Forecasting technique that was explanatory variables to predict future demand

Linear regression

Moving Average: A moving average forecast uses a number of the most recent actual data values in generating a forecast

The moving average forecast can be computed using the following equation

Ft= MAn

i= an index that corresponds to time period

n= Number of period (data points) in the moving average

AI=Actual value in period t-i

MA= Moving average

Ft= Forecast for time period

Weighted Moving Average: A moving average with most recent demand values adjusted with weights

A weighted average may be expressed mathematically asWMAn =

Where actual value 100 percent

Note: Moving average is useful if we can assume that market demand will stay fairly steady over time

Problem (1

Demand 520 490 550 580 600 420 510 610

a) Develop a three period moving average forecast and a three period weight moving average forecast with weight of 0

b) Calculate MAD for each forecast,

and indicate which would seem to be most accurate

Solution: Step-1: Compute the 3 month moving average using the formula MA=

For many,

the moving average forecast isMA3= Step-2: Compute the 3 month weighted moving average using the formulaWMA3= ∑ For many,

the weighted moving average forecast isWMA3 =

The value for both moving average forecast are shown in the table: Month (1)


February March April May


Absolute for MAD(MA3) [2-3] 60

Absolute for MAD(WMA3) [2-4] 54

September 610


Step3: Compute the MAD Value for both forecasts: MAD =

Moving average MAD = Weighted Moving average MAD=

indicating that there is not much difference in accuracy between the two forecast,

the weight moving average is slightly better

Problem (2

It appears that an increasing trend is present

Math (t) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Actual Demand(At) 12 17 20 19 24 21 31 28 36

Smoothing constants are assigned the value of and =0

Assume that the initial forecast for month 1 (F1) was 11 units and the trend over the period (T1) was 2 units

Actual Demand

Smoothed forecast (Ft) 11 12

Smoothed Trend (Tt) 2 1

Forecasting including trend(FITt) 13 14

Exponential Smoothing with trend Adjustment: Exponential smoothing is a weighted averaging method based on previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error

With trend adjusted exponential smoothing,

estimates for both the average and the trend are smoothed

This procedure requires two smoothing constants,

for the average and for the trend

The computational procedure isStep1: Compute Ft,

the exponential smoothed forecast for period t,

Step 3: Calculate forecast including trend,

Problem (1-2): The monthly sales for Telco batteries,

Monthly: Jan Feb Mar Apr may June July Aug Sep Oct Nov

17 18 20

Plot the monthly sales data on a sheet of a graph paper

Forecast journey sales using each of the following1

A 3month moving average 2

A 3 month weighted moving average using

Exponential smoothing using an

and a September forecast of 18

A trend projection

With the data given,

which method allow you to forecast next march’s sales

? Exponential smoothing: Exponential smoothing is a weighted moving average forecasting technique in which data points are weighted by an exponential function

Smoothing constant is the weighted factor used in an exponential smoothing forecast

=new forecast Previous forecast =smoothing constant =previous periods actual demand

Problem (1-1): The data for sales in 2001 to 2005 are as follows: Year: 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Sales: 450 495

563 584

Using exponential smoothing with a weight of 2002 to 2006 if initial forecast for 2001 is 410


year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Forecast 410 410+




Problem (2

February March April May June

Income (in$ thousands):

July 72

Forecast for February is $65000 and the initial trend adjustment is 0

The smoothing constants selected are

Actual Income Smoothed forecast( ) $



Step1: Compute Ft,

the exponential smoothed forecast for period t,

Ft = March =0

5) + (1-0

6) = 53831

8) + (1-0

1) (53831

7) + (1-0

1) (48548

3) + (1-0

1) (44577

March = 0

2)0 =1298

6 April


6 = 103



89) + (1-0

86 = 973



65) + (1-0

56 = 15



15) + (1-0

45 = 874

Step 3: Calculate forecast including trend,

February = (65000+0) = 65000 March = (58507+1298

6) = 59805

98) =41015